A Childish Mind

48ocean

Favoritism isn’t a new thing in AKB48, there always some girls who get a hard push by management for the reasons that they only know. With curent masal graduation and the generation change ‘issue, those who get push have been claimed as

the inheritors.Being in spotlight since the start,even before they get a team, everything seems to be served on a golden plate, but the truth there are a lot of things to pay from pressure from management, comparison with senpais, until get hatred from AKB48’s fans itself. They need a strong mentalo and work very hard to pass the barrier,in the end those who wish to wear the crown must endure its weigh and take a risk

The Royal BloodlineI wanted to play around with the idea of all of Chom’s potential children (plus Owain since he’s his nephew) having the Brand of he Exalt since technically they would be descendants of Ylissean royalty if he was their father. I took some artistic liberty with the placement of the Brands since none of them were actually mentioned (at least I don’t think so… I couldn’t find anything about it). Only Inigo and Owain’s were mentioned briefly _(:3

Male/Female Morgan is special since they can have both Fell blood and Ylissean blood (I guess Lucina and Owain could too technically.. but whatever lol) so I thought it would be neat to have both markings.

The Pennant Race will be held from 22 April 2014 to 31 October for the 12 Domestic AKB48 Group Teams (Team A, Team K, Team B, Team 4, Team S, Team KII, Team E, Team N, Team M, Team BII, Team H and Team KIV) based on

①AKB48 Group Theater (Stage) Performance Paid Membership Application Rate

②AKB48 Theater Edition (Single) Handshake Sales

③AKB48 Single Senbatsu General Election Votes

The raw numbers from these 3 factors will be converted to points and added to each team, according to the following mathematical formulas.

①AKB48 Group Theater (Stage) Performance Paid Membership Application Rate

a. The stage performances which will be counted are all performances after each team’s first performance, except special performances such as “Female only audience performance”

b. Every stage performance held will earn the team 2 points.

c. For each stage performance, if the application rate by paid membership (Mobile membership, Nihonbashira no kai/AKB48 Fanclub) exceeds a “base application rate”, 5 points will be added to the team’s score.

The “base application rate” will be calculated using a statistical regression model as described below.

Let the application rate = y, and each member’s theater appearance situation = x

_{k}. Define x_{k}asThen, define application rate, y as

By solving this regression model using the theater performance data from the previous year, the a

_{k}(k=0,1,… ,n which represents specific members) can be estimated for each member. Using each members’ data, the “base application rate” of future theater performances will be calculated from this equation.Also, for birthday stages and weekend stages, appropriate weights will be assigned to the base application rate.

②AKB48 Theater Edition (Single) Handshake Sales

a. The handshake sales which will be taken into account are the AKB48 Theater Edition (Single Handshakes after 22 April.

b. The points will be added according to the following formula for each member.

Considering the maximum allowable handshake sales of a member to be 100%,

95% ~below 100%: 1.00 90%~below 95%: 0.95

85%~below 90%: 0.90 80%~below 85%: 0.85

75%~below 80%: 0.80 70%~below 75%: 0.75

65%~below 70%: 0.70 60%~below 65%: 0.65

55%~below 60%: 0.60 50%~below 55%: 0.55

45%~below 50%: 0.50 40%~below 45%: 0.45

35%~below 40%: 0.40 30%~below 35%: 0.35

25%~below 30%: 0.30 20%~below 25%: 0.25

15%~below 20%: 0.20 10%~below 15%: 0.15

5%~below 10%: 0.10 0%~below 5%: 0.05

Points for each members will be added to their respective teams (members with concurrent positions will have their points added to all teams which they are assigned to)

c. For the following date of the theater edition handshakes, the same formulas apply, in addition to multiplying this base point with the rate of increase of sales for each individual member.

For example, if a member sells 100 tickets in the previous handshake event date, and 150 tickets in the following handshake event date, her point will be

d. For members who have sold out their tickets in both the previous handshake event date and the following handshake event date, her point from the previous handshake event date will be multiplied by a factor of 1.1. For example, the first time a member sells out her handshake tickets, her point will be 1.0. If she sells out on the next handshake date as well, her point will be 1.1 (1.1 X 1.0), and if she sells out again for the following handshake date, her point will be 1.21 (1.1 X 1.1) and so on.

③AKB48 Single Senbatsu General Election Votes

a. “AKB48 37

^{th}Single Senbatsu General Election” which will be held on 7 June 2014 will be the one accounted for.b. The calculation of points will follow the D’Hondt method (highest averages method) using the raw data of number of votes for each individual member.

(I) Every members’ number of votes will be divided by 1,2,3…n

(ii) 1 Point will be added to each member starting from the member with the most votes, and when the threshold of number of votes divided by 2 is reached by another member, 1 more point is added to the member, and this rule follows for the threshold of number of votes divided by 3 and so on, until the member ranked 80 is given 1 point.

The following table shows the calculation flow using the 2013 General Election Results as an example.

Example: 2013 General Election Result

From this table, we can see that in the first quotient, all members receive a point, and when we reach Rena’s number of votes which is less than (pass the threshold) Sashihara’s number of votes divided by 2, another point is added to Sashihara. Furthermore, when we reach Watanabe Miyuki’s number of votes which is less than Sashihara’s number of votes divided by 3, another point is added to Sashihara, giving her a total of 3 points here, and so on.

c. The points of individual members from the general election results will be added to their respective teams, where members with concurrent teams will have their points added to all of the teams to which they are assigned to.